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Get Ready for a Real Jobless Recovery: Employment Woes to Last Longer Than Normal

Posted Jul 02, 2009 01:31pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession

Stocks are falling today after employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, higher than the 363,000 expected by economists. Unemployment rose to 9.5%, a bit below forecasts but still the highest level since Ronald Reagan’s first term in office.

According to the government, 14.7 million Americans were unemployed in June; add in “discouraged workers” who’ve fallen out of the official survey and the figure rises to 19.6 million, according to T.J. Marta, chief strategist at MartaontheMarkets.com.  What really troubles Marta is the rising number of unemployed who have little or no hope of finding a job. “Your ‘Wall Streeters’, your autos workers and your housing workers – those jobs are not coming back,” he says.

While hiring typically doesn’t pick up until well after the economy bottoms, Marta predicts this “structural unemployment” means employment will be even more of a “lagging indicator” this cycle.

It doesn’t necessarily mean the macro economic data is going to deteriorate, but Marta thinks we’re in for a “jobless recovery” worse than after typical post-War recessions. The economist estimates unemployment will peak at 10.5% sometime in the second quarter of next year, meaning another year of job losses awaits.

207 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:38PM EDT

just more noise on Short Ticker

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:38PM EDT

Ever Since Mr. Nobama became Our President.....We have Lost over.....2.2 Million Jobs,....2.2 Million Jobs...Do the Math??? In his 4-Year Term.....50% Of ALL AMERICANS....Will Be Unemployed....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:40PM EDT

As soon as the lay-offs stop, we will recover. Makes perfect sense.

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:43PM EDT

really??? jobless recovery???....you have $100, you lose 50%, then it recovers 10% hurray!!!!! a 10% increase!!!!....HURRAY!....oh, wait, I only have $55....where's my other $45?.....oh, right, Goldman Sach has it....HURRAY!----RECOVERY COMPLETED.....xxooo

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:46PM EDT

To the above, A- how many people do you think are in the US? and B- redo YOUR math.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:47PM EDT

My heart goes out to those who are unemployed. Unfortunately, I think the bottom is still a ways down. The nation has to deleverage and job losses is the only sane way to do it. Again, good luck to those affected---

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:47PM EDT

yes, you stupid, it is all obama fault..

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:48PM EDT

Screwed, we all know who is accountable. Nothing to do about it.

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:48PM EDT

Mumbo Jumbo...Jobeless Recovery...Is there such a thing..

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:48PM EDT

Screwed, we all know who is accountable. Nothing to do about it.

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:49PM EDT

When is Obama's plan to create 2 million jobs going to kick in? After he leaves office. So much for a stimulus plan.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:50PM EDT

Any regular readers of these formums probably picked up on me and my common theme of sell or short. If this lates data doesn't convince you that things are bad and going to get worse... then you deserve to suffer financially. Also, Bush and Obama bashers, stop blaming them and look in the mirror.

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:50PM EDT

You said it Johnny!

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:50PM EDT

We are far from over with this economic mess. The other shoe is twice the size of the first one. Hold onto your cash and you'll be the next king.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:50PM EDT

We see what happens when we get a president who does not know what he and the Democratics are doing.

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:51PM EDT

why cant the federal government cut back spending, the stimulus money should of been spent on infrastructure. our roads and bridges are crumbling and to many are unimployed. this would have put many back to work. and for crying out loud why cant federal employees take a furloughs as have the rest of the nations state government. this would help extend unemployment benefits. it makes no sense why the government cant cut taxes a Reagan did when he took office. Im not going to sit here and argue rep or dem this is a problem for everyone. while sit back and argue about health care for everyone, why dont we worry about jobs for everyone. Our gov has grown too large and taxhappy as has local and state. Have ever sat down and just considered how much you are taxed from federal state local. its crazy and government is too eneficient. government is to blame for its greed and shortsidedness. energypolicy, financial policy, where does it end.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday July 02, 2009 01:52PM EDT

obama is doing just what he wants... more unemployed and losing their health care... obama says he will fix that too... nationalize health care... obama's goal of socializing America continues... the sheep following obama.. sad... Where is the STIMULUS OBAMA, hmmm?.. What a complete joke, only spent 6% of the stimulus... waiting to pay off his supporters... where are the 'shovel ready jobs'... ???? green jobs????... A COMPLETE JOKE AND LIAR.... amazing how obama koolaid drinkers find joy in the unemployment is NOT AS BAD AS THOUGHT TO BE!!... just amazing.... obama ruining America.. how you like that hope and change eh??

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:53PM EDT

With consumer confidence the way it is the jobs are not coming back... China is our only hope.

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:55PM EDT

One has to consider the fact that many of the lost jobs are not coming back and are lost forever. Putting things in perspective, what kind of jobs will be created? If the expectation is government jobs, then you may as well stick a knofe in it because the proverbial goose is cooked. If there is any credibility to this, then America will have to get used to 8% average unemployment in a "good economy" instead of 4% ... I wonder how those college kids are feeling right about now after reading this gem?

- Thursday July 02, 2009 01:56PM EDT

WOW are all these "nobama" name callers retarded or what. They are always good for a laugh though. I guess their leader Limbaugh has sent them to these sites to spew their talking points. It's kinda sad really.

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